Category: tensol3

Regular

@tensol3 said:

Like I said as much as I’d hate it I’d go to the preds once josi comes
up cause they’ll have to move at least one of the four. See which one
they think the least of, you’d either get Ellis, Josi, or Subban (I
think Nashville feels way to highly of ekholm to,move him) 

Yeah, maybe. But If I’m Nashville, I’m not moving any of those guys until next year at the earliest. The Josi and Ekholm contracts are so club-friendly, they make it possible for that team to be as loaded as it is and still potentially able to add significant pieces. Those contracts make them super attractive to a bunch of teams, but also make it so Nashville doesn’t need to move any of them to stay cap-compliant. Next season, once Ellis’ extension kicks in and Josi’s eligible to sign an extension, that may change, but for now, it would take one hell of an offer to pry any of the four out of there.

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@tensol3 said:

It feels like the general feeling is well go with forwards and they’ll do this at the expense of defense. 

Yeah, that’s what it seems like, which I don’t like. They were already very good offensively, and it got them nowhere last year. You can’t outscore a shit defense, no matter how much firepower you have. But we’ll see. It’s very easy to say things now. All it takes is the right offer, or right conversation to come along between now and next season and things can change in a hurry.

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@tensol3 said:

Ehats the cap implication of he retires early? I heard it hits the preds not the habs, which seems weird to me.

There’s a bit of confusion there, actually. I’m not entirely sure if there’s no penalty to Montreal, or if they have a penalty on the two years they’ve had him, which would amount to $8.2 million saved. But they’re buying that down starting next season, as his actual salary finally sinks below his cap hit. So that’ll be either gone or insignificant moving forward, if it hits them at all.

Nashville’s a very different situation. He played four years there, made $56 million while only counting for roughly $31.5 milion against the cap. That $24.5 million is going to be hanging over the Predators until the contract is over. If he retired tomorrow, he’d count $3 million against their cap for the rest of the contract, 8 years. Each year going forward, that amount will go up.
3.5×7
4.08×6
4.9×5
6.125×4
8.16×3
12.25×2
24.5×1 

So, really ugly, if he decides to actually retire at any point, rather than go on LTIR.

Where do the hets go now that statsny left? Gr…

Where do the hets go now that statsny left? Granted they didn't exactly clear put anyone super important to try to keep him but it certainly takes away from the team.

Maybe Filppula is an option for them, if they’re really set on getting a guy who’s a known quantity. He’s the best of what’s still available in free agency, and would be fairly cheap. But I don’t know. It’s probably better for them to go into the season with the mix of centres they have and hope somebody steps up, rather than spend money or assets on acquiring a guy, unless that guy is somebody who’s very good and is on a friendly contract. Their cap situation is going to be all sorts of jacked up after next season, and everybody goes on about their defensive depth, but that shit will run out quick if they have to trade one or two guys to get back a useful player. They were a pretty good team before Stastny came over last season, and if it’s me, I’d save the money and see how they looked as they are next season before I tried to swing a deal for anybody. 

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@tensol3 said:

Think they hit up Nashville for one of their top 4 with a future expansion draft and most needing reupped in the next few seasons (id hope not since Nashville’s window is wide open right now with that top 4)?

Or maybe see if they can pry a Sam Girard or Olli maatta out from their respective teams?

Like not in a one for one for the last two maybe but a package type deal. Thr Nashville top four I think the leafs would do a one for one but Nashville would want a package

I think they’ll kick the tires on every high-end defenseman in the league. With Babcock, you know they’re going to be looking for that big right-handed shot, but if there’s an elite left-hand guy available, I’m sure they’ll look at it. I don’t know that this is going to ever be a one-for-one trade. I’m sure that would be preferable, but trades like that are hard, and with how a couple of the more recent ones have turned out, I think teams might be reluctant to make a move like that because somebody always ends up looking like a chump. With other assets included, it can offset some of that ridicule even if the main piece doesn’t pan out. But other than the few really obvious guys, I don’t know that there’s a defenseman in the league they couldn’t put together an offer for to at least make the other team seriously consider it. And they’re not in the market for unproven players here, so whatever move they make is going to have a massive impact. 

Now that the isles are living in a JT-less wor…

Now that the isles are living in a JT-less world what impulsive move do they make to not be in a race to the bottom with CAR? Similiarly, what move does TOR make now with their young stud forwards? They clearly need defense and I feel like karlsson is out of the question (both financially and really based on his play). I'd think nylander moves.

I’m really not sure. Obviously losing Tavares is a kick to the nuts, but it’s not like the cupboard is bare in terms of fairly high-end forwards. Basically, they still need defense and a goalie. I think they’ll push to bring in O’Reilly, and that could help, but if I’m them, I worry less about replacing Tavares (an impossible thing), and spend whatever I can to make the team better defensively. They’re not going to be a contender for awhile either way, but icing a team that doesn’t give up 300 goals a season will go a long way in off-setting the loss of offense.

And yeah, you’re right. I think Nylander’s the guy who moves. They need a top-four defenseman. Well, they need a top-two defenseman, but have to be realistic. You’re not trading Matthews. You’re not trading Marner. Doesn’t leave a lot of options. I think they’d love to keep him, but talent costs talent, and Nylander’s going to look fucking good to a lot of teams. But they need to be careful. He’s a good player, statistically comparable to Draisaitl through three seasons. You can’t just give that up for the first decent player that comes along. Vancouver fans out there who think Tanev for Nylander straight-up is a possibility are out of their fucking minds. So they need to wait and make the right deal. With Tavares signed, they are all the way in, so they need to bring in the right defenseman to make that group a real, legit Stanley Cup threat.

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@tensol3 said:

I know you’re in a frenzy today with signings so I don’t expect an answer right away. But do you think JT signing in TOR makes Logan the defacto 2C and hertl the 3C if jumbo doesn’t come back? Or do the sharks move hertl up to 2C roll Logan on the wing and plan for jumbo on the 3C

No, I think it’ll be Hertl’s job to lose. With the way Couture’s played while at centre the last couple of years, Hertl’s the better choice. He’ll be the 2C next season, with a shiny new contract, and Couture will play on his wing. His jump in goals is clearly tied to his move from centre. If Hertl falters, then I think Couture inherits that spot, but Hertl will get every opportunity to keep himself there. He did enough to earn that spot last season. If for some reason Joe doesn’t come back, I think they make a move for a 3C. They’ve got the space, and there are some interesting names available. Not to say they have to spend, but I think they want to. They’re not getting any younger. 

So Logan couture took an 8@8 deal from the sha…

So Logan couture took an 8@8 deal from the sharks when we both know he could have commanded way more. With this, the 8@8 Carlson took, and I'm sure team friendly deal doughty took, do you think stars are looking for less to help the team and not going for max money will hurt contracts in the future? Also thoughts on Logan's deal?

Bear with me for a second here, because I find the Couture deal sort of interesting. I’ve been thinking about him as a player lately, and he’s kind of a bit of an enigma, in regards to what exactly he is. He’s billed as a number one centre, but he’s not really that. Pavelski is the number one centre on that team. And this season, he was almost more of a winger. He only took 300 faceoffs, and wasn’t particularly good at winning them. He scores, but this was his first 30+ goal season since 2011-12. In terms of points scored since his first full season in the league, he’s 30th overall. He’s never topped 70 points, and when this extension kicks in, he’ll be on the wrong side of 30. I almost wish he hadn’t signed it, just to see what he would have gotten in free agency. Statistically, he’s almost identical to Max Pacioretty. Can you imagine somebody giving him $8 million a year? So I don’t know. If you’re San Jose, you have to pay your stars, and being a “star” in the current NHL means you get paid. $8 million seems to be about the starting point for that now. Good on SJ for locking him up. I’ll be curious to see if he falls back into a real centre role next season. He’d be a lot more valuable in that role.

Though if the reported Reaves contract terms are accurate, Couture’s might be a fucking bargain lol.

On the subject of contracts, I’m slightly torn. I want guys to push for as much as they can possibly get. But I also understand the desire to win. If it was me, I’m taking the money. It’s too easy for GMs and ownership to promise to improve the team around a star who agrees to take a pay-cut. It’s a lot harder to actually do that. I think they should all push for as much as they can get and go from there. The concept of a team-friendly deal is designed specifically to suppress the salaries of top players, and trickle down from there. That it also happens to have the convenient cover of “helping build a winner” is just fucking icing on the cake.

What are the big FA moves you're expectin…

What are the big FA moves you're expecting and what are the sleeper moves.

I don’t know if there are any really big moves I’m expecting, other than seeing where Tavares ends up. This free agent class is… not great. I’m more curious to see how much the top guys end up getting. Somebody always gets way overpaid, so I’m curious to see who it is. I’m watching Vanek closely, because I want to see how much his history of crapping out on teams off-sets the solid season he had. I also have a bad feeling the fact four of the top six highest-scoring free agents are wingers is going to turn this into some kind of waiting game as everybody bids on JVR and teams have to wait to see if he’s coming to them before they move on to one of the others. I’m really hoping it doesn’t.

Sleeper moves: I think wherever Derek Ryan ends up, he can help a team as a really solid third/fourth-line centre. I like him as a player, especially in comparison to some of the other depth centres available.

Honestly, I’m paying more attention to potential trades. With the way this free agent group has played out, I think the much more interesting moves will be done via trade. Unfortunately, that probably only opens up once the big guys move, and teams know what kind of cap space they have and which players are available. But I’m holding out hope something happens early that kind of sparks things off. It probably won’t, but I’m trying to be more optimistic lol.

Regular

@tensol3 said:

Hes only 28, 3 or 4 years he’ll be 32. Doughty is what, 31, and people
are saying hes looking to milk 10M/yr? This will be a steal going
forward and as long as Carlson is productive for 3-4 years it will be
worth it, especially if they get another cup. And if not you unload him
in some salary floor team that needs a d man for future/now. The guy
doesnt play a stile that’s going to wear down his body like weber and
he’s not a one trick pony like karlsson so I can’t see him being less
than a 3-4… 

lol Doughty is a month older than Carlson with 8 top-ten Norris finishes in 10 seasons. That’s not a great comparison. Again, I don’t want to misrepresent anybody, but Carlson has had one excellent season. He’s a number one defenseman, yes, but he’s not an elite defender. The underlying stats tell the story. When he’s not scoring, he doesn’t do a whole lot to help his team. If he repeats his offensive production, it’ll be great for them, but he’s put up 40+ points twice in nine seasons. I hope he does well, but I don’t think anybody would be shocked if he fell back into his normal range next season. If they win another Cup or two, it’s entirely worth it for them, but I think the possibility they regret this down the line is there. Good player, but let’s not go overboard here lol.