Category: tensol3

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@tensol3 replied to your post: How much do you think Matthews gets on his next…                

Do you think Matthews pushes gretzky for 50 in 39 or does he have to
cool off? I cant say hes been eating weak teams alive.    

No, he’s going to cool off. I mean, it would be awesome as fuck to do that, but I’m not gonna hold my breath lol. That’s one of the records I don’t think will ever be broken. But with the way he scores, he’s going to put up serious numbers, especially if he can stay healthy for the entire season. Ovechkin had 43 ES goals his third season, and Stamkos had 48 in his fourth. I think those numbers are in reach, especially if he stays hot at least a little while longer here.

Do you think karlsson adjusts ans plays well i…

Do you think karlsson adjusts ans plays well in the west? With the focus on a more physical play and bigger teams, not that he hasnt seen them twice a year but still hes not the most physical guy. I also worry how much his forward mentality hurts the sharks now that the entire team doesn't play a defensive game behind him like they did in Ottawa. Cause ive seen his d zone play and its nothing worth writing home about.

I get what you’re saying, and I think it will be an adjustment, but with a guy that talented, he’ll make it work. He’s not a shutdown defender, that’s true, but he controls the play better than probably anybody from his position. And for a somewhat interesting comparison, the underlying stats paint him as a slightly better defender than Brent Burns. Not as physical, obviously, but with an edge in shot suppression. Burns is probably the best comparable for him, their size difference aside. I mean, talk about a forward mentality lol. Basically, as long as Vlasic and the rest are there to play hard in the defensive zone, the offensive output from those two is going to make up for whatever defensive slips they have.

Do you think this karlsson trade turns I to,mo…

Do you think this karlsson trade turns I to,more of a curse than a blessing? I know end goal is win a cup but if they don't and he leaves, or worse don't and he resigns, how much of the team do they cannibalize to fit his salary? Especially with a new team likely on the horizon.

No, I don’t think so. If they don’t win and he leaves after this season, their situation isn’t radically different from how it would have been if they’d never traded for him at all. They’re down a few assets, but nothing that isn’t replaceable in fairly short order. If he stays, they’ll probably be pretty tight to the cap, but they’ve got some things working in their favour. One, Big Joe isn’t going to be around much longer, so that money will be off the books one way or another. Pavelski needs an extension, but he’ll be 35 before his next contract kicks in, so whatever he gets, it really shouldn’t be long-term or top-dollar. Aside from Meier and Labanc, they don’t have any RFAs coming who might demand a significant raise, and if they’re winning, I don’t imagine it would be terribly difficult to talk them into some kind of bridge deal to keep costs down for a few years, if it comes to that. They’ve got the majority of their defense already locked down, so there’s cost certainty there, and with Couture, Hertl, and Kane. Basically, they’ll be in the same position all top teams inevitably come to: a high-paid core that demands most of the money while they try to plug in spare parts around them and count on good development to keep new talent flooding in. They can make it work.

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@tensol3 replied to your linkPageau out six months after tearing Achilles -…

Sens need to call the season before this gets worse and Anderson dies on the ice.

They really should. On the positive side, it’s going to be fascinating to watch that team this season. For a lot of reasons. If we’re talking significant trades this season, they’re going to be a go-to team for that. Because they really need to bring back some assets, specifically first round picks. Because, and I don’t mean to pile on all you Senators fans out there, they do not have their first round pick this season. Colorado does. So, they actually have to do something to bring in other assets if they don’t want this “rebuild” to completely stall for a year. What a shit show.

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@tensol3 said:

Like I said as much as I’d hate it I’d go to the preds once josi comes
up cause they’ll have to move at least one of the four. See which one
they think the least of, you’d either get Ellis, Josi, or Subban (I
think Nashville feels way to highly of ekholm to,move him) 

Yeah, maybe. But If I’m Nashville, I’m not moving any of those guys until next year at the earliest. The Josi and Ekholm contracts are so club-friendly, they make it possible for that team to be as loaded as it is and still potentially able to add significant pieces. Those contracts make them super attractive to a bunch of teams, but also make it so Nashville doesn’t need to move any of them to stay cap-compliant. Next season, once Ellis’ extension kicks in and Josi’s eligible to sign an extension, that may change, but for now, it would take one hell of an offer to pry any of the four out of there.

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@tensol3 said:

It feels like the general feeling is well go with forwards and they’ll do this at the expense of defense. 

Yeah, that’s what it seems like, which I don’t like. They were already very good offensively, and it got them nowhere last year. You can’t outscore a shit defense, no matter how much firepower you have. But we’ll see. It’s very easy to say things now. All it takes is the right offer, or right conversation to come along between now and next season and things can change in a hurry.

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@tensol3 said:

Ehats the cap implication of he retires early? I heard it hits the preds not the habs, which seems weird to me.

There’s a bit of confusion there, actually. I’m not entirely sure if there’s no penalty to Montreal, or if they have a penalty on the two years they’ve had him, which would amount to $8.2 million saved. But they’re buying that down starting next season, as his actual salary finally sinks below his cap hit. So that’ll be either gone or insignificant moving forward, if it hits them at all.

Nashville’s a very different situation. He played four years there, made $56 million while only counting for roughly $31.5 milion against the cap. That $24.5 million is going to be hanging over the Predators until the contract is over. If he retired tomorrow, he’d count $3 million against their cap for the rest of the contract, 8 years. Each year going forward, that amount will go up.
3.5×7
4.08×6
4.9×5
6.125×4
8.16×3
12.25×2
24.5×1 

So, really ugly, if he decides to actually retire at any point, rather than go on LTIR.

Where do the hets go now that statsny left? Gr…

Where do the hets go now that statsny left? Granted they didn't exactly clear put anyone super important to try to keep him but it certainly takes away from the team.

Maybe Filppula is an option for them, if they’re really set on getting a guy who’s a known quantity. He’s the best of what’s still available in free agency, and would be fairly cheap. But I don’t know. It’s probably better for them to go into the season with the mix of centres they have and hope somebody steps up, rather than spend money or assets on acquiring a guy, unless that guy is somebody who’s very good and is on a friendly contract. Their cap situation is going to be all sorts of jacked up after next season, and everybody goes on about their defensive depth, but that shit will run out quick if they have to trade one or two guys to get back a useful player. They were a pretty good team before Stastny came over last season, and if it’s me, I’d save the money and see how they looked as they are next season before I tried to swing a deal for anybody. 

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@tensol3 said:

Think they hit up Nashville for one of their top 4 with a future expansion draft and most needing reupped in the next few seasons (id hope not since Nashville’s window is wide open right now with that top 4)?

Or maybe see if they can pry a Sam Girard or Olli maatta out from their respective teams?

Like not in a one for one for the last two maybe but a package type deal. Thr Nashville top four I think the leafs would do a one for one but Nashville would want a package

I think they’ll kick the tires on every high-end defenseman in the league. With Babcock, you know they’re going to be looking for that big right-handed shot, but if there’s an elite left-hand guy available, I’m sure they’ll look at it. I don’t know that this is going to ever be a one-for-one trade. I’m sure that would be preferable, but trades like that are hard, and with how a couple of the more recent ones have turned out, I think teams might be reluctant to make a move like that because somebody always ends up looking like a chump. With other assets included, it can offset some of that ridicule even if the main piece doesn’t pan out. But other than the few really obvious guys, I don’t know that there’s a defenseman in the league they couldn’t put together an offer for to at least make the other team seriously consider it. And they’re not in the market for unproven players here, so whatever move they make is going to have a massive impact. 

Now that the isles are living in a JT-less wor…

Now that the isles are living in a JT-less world what impulsive move do they make to not be in a race to the bottom with CAR? Similiarly, what move does TOR make now with their young stud forwards? They clearly need defense and I feel like karlsson is out of the question (both financially and really based on his play). I'd think nylander moves.

I’m really not sure. Obviously losing Tavares is a kick to the nuts, but it’s not like the cupboard is bare in terms of fairly high-end forwards. Basically, they still need defense and a goalie. I think they’ll push to bring in O’Reilly, and that could help, but if I’m them, I worry less about replacing Tavares (an impossible thing), and spend whatever I can to make the team better defensively. They’re not going to be a contender for awhile either way, but icing a team that doesn’t give up 300 goals a season will go a long way in off-setting the loss of offense.

And yeah, you’re right. I think Nylander’s the guy who moves. They need a top-four defenseman. Well, they need a top-two defenseman, but have to be realistic. You’re not trading Matthews. You’re not trading Marner. Doesn’t leave a lot of options. I think they’d love to keep him, but talent costs talent, and Nylander’s going to look fucking good to a lot of teams. But they need to be careful. He’s a good player, statistically comparable to Draisaitl through three seasons. You can’t just give that up for the first decent player that comes along. Vancouver fans out there who think Tanev for Nylander straight-up is a possibility are out of their fucking minds. So they need to wait and make the right deal. With Tavares signed, they are all the way in, so they need to bring in the right defenseman to make that group a real, legit Stanley Cup threat.